Thanksgiving and Investing
The Best Laid Plans
Be Ready to Act Quickly
Happy Thanksgiving! I hope you are enjoying a festive day with family and friends.
I have often enjoyed a good old fashioned Thanksgiving with a big turkey dinner and a day of relaxing. In recent years, though, we’ve had some different Thanksgiving experiences: my wife and I spent one Thanksgiving at Walt Disney World in Orlando; another year, we camped with friends in Port Orange, Florida. Both Thanksgivings were very enjoyable.
This Thanksgiving will be even more different for me. I will be driving with my son from St. George, Utah, to Clearwater, Florida. That sounds like a crazy idea, but circumstances make the trip necessary.
The last time I wrote a Cabot Wealth Advisory on November 11, I had just received a call from my son, Brad, while he was on his way to a hospital (in the back or an ambulance) following a mountain climbing accident. What I didn't know was that he was heavily drugged with morphine, and his injuries were serious. He owes his life to several individuals at the Park and at the hospital, but most notably Park Ranger Tim, an EMT, who went to work quickly and efficiently.
As I write this on November 24, Brad is out of the hospital and staying with me at a Best Western Hotel in St. George, Utah. He is anxious to get back home to Florida, but the airlines cannot accommodate him. So we have gone to plan B, which includes driving his car, with all of his climbing equipment, back to Clearwater. We should arrive home the day after Thanksgiving.
What do Brad's problems (and now mine) have to do with investing? Lots! Brad and I have had to come up with several plans to solve our dilemma. We didn't anticipate what happened, certainly, but we have reacted as best we can. As an investor, you should have a plan that will allow you to react to different stock market situations in a timely manner.
I receive emails almost daily, asking me if it’s time to get out of the stock market as everything seems to have become overvalued.
These questions come from investors without a plan. As a value investor, my plan is to sell stocks as the stock market climbs.
My current evaluation of the market calls for a stock allocation of 37.5% stocks and 62.5% bonds, cash or ultra-conservative stocks. If the stock market climbs higher, my plan is to go to an allocation of 25% stocks—my lowest possible stock allocation.
If and when the stock market begins to decline, I will advise my subscribers to increase their allocation to stocks to take advantage of bargain prices.
By following my plan, subscribers can manage stock market risk and avoid losing a big chunk of their portfolios when the market hits the skids. Even if the market declines more than expected, my subscribers' losses will likely be reasonably small.
To review: The stock market is either going to go up or it’s going to go down. Sometimes you can get blindsided by the market’s action and have to react quickly. By having a plan, you’ll know what action to take so that you can act decisively.
As part of the Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor service, I inform my subscribers each month if they should cut their stock exposure or if they should increase it.
So why not give yourself an early Christmas present? Subscribe to my Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor, and follow a well-planned, fundamental approach to investing. As a thank you, you’ll receive two bonus reports 5 Top Value Stocks Every Investor Must Own and Benjamin Graham’s Complete Guide to Value Investing. Click here to get more details.
Until next time, be kind and friendly to everyone you meet.
Chief Analyst, Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Investor