Analysts Center | Paul Goodwin

 

Here are some excerpts from Cabot Emerging Markets Investor, which seeks to capitalize on the enormous potential in emerging market countries. Chief analyst Paul Goodwin, Cabot’s international investing guru, provides your passport to profits.


Paul Goodwin can be found on Google Plus.

The Bad News is Out There

Any piece of bad news is like a bit of data entered into an enormous computer; it gets chewed up and added to all the other data and registered in the program’s output almost immediately. So when a piece of bad news hits the ticker, investing pros know that today’s reaction will be history by tomorrow’s open.»

Weak Manufacturing News

The Halter USX China Index, which had dipped to its 50-day moving average on March 6, has corrected again over the last few days.»

Charts Say Play Conservatively

The crucial factor to watch right now is whether investors have stopped believing that the Chinese government has a plan to get its economy stabilized and growing again.»

Crunch

Skepticism and wariness seem to be the flavors of the week for many investors, and that’s part of a longer-term trend that extends far beyond the stock market.»

Things Have Turned Ugly

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), which tried to bounce in mid-December, has been correcting hard, and is now nearly back to its August Meltdown lows.»

The Chinese Cliff Hanger

We don’t make forecasts about future events, but it’s a virtual certainty that the long-running story about the Chinese economic slowdown will remain in the headlines well into 2016. You can pretty much take that one to the bank.»

China Rally Continues

Chinese ADRs are continuing the rally that began in late September. That’s a welcome sign of strength from the biggest emerging market and speaks well for prospects in 2016.»

Fed Rate Hike Will Mean a Calmer Market

The Fed has finally (seven years!) taken the first small step in getting U.S. interest rates back to sane levels, and investors seem to be taking it the right way.»

China Market is Beating Them All

Surprisingly, PowerShares Golden Dragon (PGJ), which tracks most Chinese ADRs that trade on U.S. exchanges, continues to beat them all.»

Global Headlines, Local Gains

This week, the biggest news about China is the decision by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to add the yuan to its list of global reserve currencies.»

Still No Consensus on Global Outlook

The Fed seems pretty certain to begin raising interest rates in December, but very little else is assured.»

Stock Selection and Flexibility are the Keys

We’re trading the best and leaving the rest (stock selection), while also having mental stops on most of our holdings, even if they’re acting well today (flexibility).»

Genuinely Significant News from China

The first news is that sales on China’s Singles Day (November 11) were up 60% from last year, making this sales event bigger than Black Friday and Cyber Monday combined.»

The China Bounce

If you want a good illustration of how quickly the stock market can digest bad news and beg for more, you just need to look at what’s happening with Chinese stocks.»

Emerging Markets Timer in Positive Territory

Many economic analysts see this as a fragile market rally, vulnerable to bad news, but what we see is a market that’s advancing. »

Business as Usual

Right now, enough investors are confident enough that China’s economy is doing well enough that they’re maintaining their exposure.»

Supporting Demand

In effect, GDP growth is the most valuable commodity in the world right now, and most countries are working to make it happen. And the preferred method for growing GDP is stimulating consumption.»

The Market May Have Found Support

It’s impossible to know how much of the Shanghai’s calm, flat trading is due to government buying, but it’s a reassuring pattern that’s typical of market bottom-building processes.»

Heeding the New Buy Signal

We have no predictions about the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM)’s future movements, but we are heeding the new buy signal it has delivered.»

Still a Mess

while it looks like China’s program of active buying support for the Shanghai Exchange is keeping the exchange on an even keel, the other economic news out of China isn’t so hopeful.»

Stock Picks

Prudential Financial

This stock currently stands out because it easily fits all of Benjamin Graham's criteria.

Nevro

This stock is still behaving well, supported by the buying power of investors just discovering the stock.

Whirlpool

A good value with excellent prospects for recovery because homebuilding is strong.

Cabot Wealth Advisory

For Investors with a Taste for Adventure

By Paul Goodwin on February 04, 2016

For investors with a little taste for adventure, emerging markets are more fun than an unlimited ticket to a go-cart track (and offer much bigger potential rewards). Yes, when markets turn sour, emerging market stocks can take some skin off. But that only happens if you’re sitting like a bump on a log and watching your holdings tank.Read More >

How to Benefit from Daily Trading Order Flow

By Jacob Mintz on February 02, 2016

As the market was unwinding, the question I often heard from subscribers of Cabot Options Trader and Cabot Options Trader Pro, was “what stocks were on your watch list to buy?” My answer was always the same: look at the Daily Order Flow Reading email that I send every day for the best ideas on what to short and what to buy.Read More >

Apple (AAPL) and Zika

By Timothy Lutts on February 01, 2016

Read More >