Analysts Center | Michael Cintolo

 
Below are excerpts from Mike Cintolo's advisories, Cabot Top Ten Trader and Cabot Growth Investor.

Cabot Top Ten Trader features the best trades to make every week. Designed for experienced investors who want even more great growth stock ideas, this advisory recommends the best 10 stocks each month for short-term investment by aggressive growth investors.

Cabot Growth Investor has been picking the best growth stocks since 1970. Cabot’s flagship advisory combines expert stock selection and award-winning market timing. It’s the most complete and most helpful, growth-oriented investing advisory available anywhere.

Michael Cintolo can be found on Google Plus.

Market Movers & Shakers

After some gyrations in the market last week, we wrote “after smooth sailing for two and a half months, a deeper retreat or shakeout in the market wouldn’t be surprising.” That looks to be playing out now.»

Rotation Under the Hood

Under the market’s hood, we are starting to see a shift; many defensive sectors like utilities, REITs and consumer staples are breaking (or close to breaking) their intermediate-term uptrends.»

Market Movers & Shakers

Under the hood, we’re beginning to see some rotation. Many of the “yield” stocks and sectors are breaking (or close to breaking) their intermediate-term uptrends. »

Earnings Reports Will Be Telling

The environment for individual stocks is somewhat tricky. Many off-the-bottom stocks that have been so strong during the past few weeks are now running into resistance.»

Market Movers & Shakers

We’re more focused on the intermediate- to longer-term trends, and by our measures, both are now positive. »

The Final Piece of the Puzzle

Even with all our indicators sunny, we’re still holding about 30% in cash because we don’t buy the market—we buy high-potential stocks with big growth potential ...»

Some Profit Taking, but also Some Earnings Winners

Some further retrenchment, which could go along with a scary headline or two, would probably be good for the market in the long run.»

The Market's Movers & Shakers

There’s more bullish evidence than not, so you should be leaning bullish. If you see some low-risk entry points, go ahead and take them.»

We’re Buying as Opportunities Arise

The market remains in good shape; it did pull back a bit in recent days, and could easily consolidate for a bit ahead of earnings, but the overall picture remains bright.»

Three Reasons I'm Bullish on the Stock Market

I’ve grown incrementally more bullish in recent days for three reasons. First, the broad market continues to impress—coming after many months of intense pressure, it’s a good sign that the storm is over.»

Optimistic that Growth Stocks Can Lead the Market Higher

We’re optimistic the market can continue higher, and that growth stocks can help lead the way. Here are three charts we're watching to measure the progress of growth stocks.»

Stock Market Consolidation is Normal So Far

Right now, given the evidence, we remain optimistic, but not fully bullish, until the longer-term trend and growth stocks kick into gear.»

The Stock Market's Movers & Shakers

The stock market's recent retreat wasn’t surprising—the major indexes had just run straight up into some resistance, and some signs of short-term optimism had arisen.»

Continuing to Buy New Stocks Slowly

We have our eyes on many stocks that we could pull the trigger on if the environment continues to improve, but for now, we think it’s best to continue going slow.»

Good Action, but Waiting for Growth Stocks

Our market monitor is in the upper reaches of neutral until we see growth stocks get going—many of them are set-up nicely, but until they actually break out, it’s best to keep some powder dry.»

Cabot Trend Lines Hold the Key

A month ago the market was left for dead; it had become acceptable to be bearish and to assume a bear market was underway. And, as the market is wont to do, it thumbed its nose at all those who turned negative near the lows and has put on a very solid four-week rally.»

Looking Better, but Need More Confirmation

For now, we’ll leave the Market Monitor where it is and will be watching the action of potential leaders closely for signs the buyers are stepping up in a big way.»

Movers & Shakers

The percentage of stocks on the NYSE above their 200-day moving averages has improved to 36.5%, which is positive. On the other hand, a truly healthy market will have more than 50% on top of their long-term averages.»

A Great Rally! Now What?

We would hold off on flooring the accelerator until we see more breakouts and a longer-term uptrend in the general stock market.»

Market May Have Turned the Corner

Both our Cabot Tides and Two-Second Indicator are now positive—the first time both have been green for a few months, and it’s definitely an encouraging sign. »

Movers & Shakers

With the major indexes working on their third straight week in the black, the intermediate-term trend remains up—so we believe you can slowly put money to work as stocks show you attractive entry points.»

Just Follow the System

Turning your decision-making over to the system simplifies the process, relieves a lot of stress and frees up more time for finding the next big winner. »

Following Along

The intermediate-term trend turned positive last week for the first time in more than two months, so it’s time to take a couple of steps back into the market’s waters by purchasing some strong stocks with big potential.»

Sticking with a Defensive Stance

Given all of the evidence, we’re going to stick with our defensive stance for now, but we’ll also remain flexible.»

The Evidence Continues to Improve

By our measures, the intermediate-term trend is starting to turn up, so after many weeks in a defensive stance, it’s OK to put some cash to work.»

Movers & Shakers

We have seen some improvement in the evidence during the past couple of weeks, which is encouraging. But we can’t say the stars are all aligned either. »

First Signs of a Bottom

The market might have hit a short-term low, and could be starting a bottoming process. Here’s what that does and doesn’t mean.»

Ready to Rally?

Right now, the market’s major trends remain down, and while some stocks and sectors have shaped up, most are still in the mud. »

Movers & Shakers

While this retest (if it holds) would be a good sign, it’s unlikely that a three-week bottoming process would be enough given all the damage.»

Remain Defensive

Looking at the big picture, all three of our market timing indicators remain bearish, so a defensive stance is still advised.»

Follow the System

Following the system, to us, means staying in gear with the market's major trends. As has been the case for weeks, the trends are down, so we continue to advise a defensive stance.»

Movers & Shakers

90% of our focus remains on the intermediate- to longer-term market and individual stocks. And on that front, the trends remain clearly down; thus, our Market Monitor remains in bearish territory and we continue to advise a defensive stance.»

Be Dumber

When it comes to market timing, it’s best to be, well, dumb. Today, that means recognizing that the market’s intermediate- and longer-term trends remain clearly down, and the vast majority of stocks remain in poor shape.»

Still Bouncing

This bounce probably has further to run, especially as earnings season has helped a few stocks show excellent strength, but the onus remains on the bulls to prove the bounce can morph into a sustained rally.»

Movers and Shakers

Every day that goes by with the indexes still just a couple of percent above the January 20 low, we become more suspicious—usually after such a deep selloff, you get a few days of strong upside, a clear sign the selling pressures were exhausted short-term.»

Remain Defensive

We continue to advise a defensive stance, with lots of cash and little new buying as we wait for a sustained, intermediate-term (and, ideally, longer-term) advance to kick into gear.»

Bounce Mode

This bounce could continue for a while, so if you want to nibble on a couple of strong names (especially those that react well to earnings), that’s fine.»

Movers & Shakers

After two and a half weeks of very intense selling, it appears the market has finally found a short-term low to work from—and we could have finally entered a bounce phase.»

Avoiding the Improbable

The market tends to be a bad teacher; it acts a certain way for many months, lulls investors into a sense of security, and then quickly changes its tune, leaving most investors dancing to the prior rhythm.»

Practice Patience

After another week of major selling in the market, there’s not much left to say except the obvious—the sellers remain in control of nearly every stock and sector.»

Movers & Shakers

This morning looks particularly ugly, with another steep drop in oil prices led to an opening drop of around 400 points in the Dow.»

Separating the Forest form the Trees

Looking at the market right now, it’s important to separate the forest (the bigger picture) from the trees (the nearer-term picture). »

Simply Put, the Trend is Down

The trends are down, so you should remain in a defensive posture, meaning lots of cash, little if any new buying, with the focus on building a watch list of future winners. »

Movers and Shakers

It’s been a very bearish start to the year, and the facts are pretty straightforward at this point: The major trends are currently down, so a defensive stance is appropriate.»

Stepping Aside

Following tedious-at-best action during the last month or two of 2015, sellers have come out swinging this year, driving the major indexes toward multi-month lows.»

We're Encouraged

As it has so many times this year, the market has been rebounding nicely following a multi-week correction, the most recent one from the start of November through the first week of December (nearly 6% from high to low for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq). It's encouraging action, but so far, it hasn't been enough to flip our Cabot Tides back to positive--three of the five indexes we track are still below their 50-day lines.»

Movers & Shakers

The rally of the past few days hasn’t changed our overall view—the intermediate-term trend is down, and few stocks are making much progress on the upside.»

2015: A Mild Bear Market Year

Every December, we like to take a step back and look at the year as a whole, including the market and our actions (both the good and the bad).»

Remain Cautious

At the very least, the intermediate-term trend is sideways-to-down, and the broad market is in poor health, with hundreds of stocks hitting new lows on a daily basis.»

Movers & Shakers

Until the major indexes break out to new highs (around 2,130 on the S&P 500 and near 5,200 on the Nasdaq), it’s going to be hard for most stocks to enjoy sustained uptrends. »

Buyers React Positively to Fed Move

Today was great, but our Cabot Tides and the Two-Second Indicator remain negative while our Cabot Trend Lines remain positive.»

The Sellers are Back in Control

We never got too bullish in recent weeks because of all the warts on the rally, and now it’s time to be cautious, selling your losers and laggards and holding plenty of cash.»

Movers & Shakers

The evidence has deteriorated, so taking some defensive measures makes sense. Most of all, have a plan in case this month’s weakness continues.»

Leadership Still Holding

In the market, it’s often the unusual that is worth paying attention to. And in our book, it’s highly unusual that almost all of the leading growth stocks have not cracked.»

Tenuous, but Still Positive

We’re sticking with a relatively neutral stance, meaning we’re holding our top performers, but also holding some cash and being very selective on the buy side.»

Top Ten Movers & Shakers

By our measures, the market’s intermediate- and longer-term trends remain up, and most of the liquid growth leaders of this advance continue to act well enough.»

Another Point in the Bulls’ Favor

The leaders have performed well; many had short, sharp shakeouts three weeks ago, but none broke down and most have powered back to (or close to) new highs. »

A Balancing Act

What’s encouraging is that our screens are finding more and more good growth stories, which is what we see this week.»

Warts and All, the Trend Remains Up

As tricky as the environment is, there are opportunities out there if you’re invested in the right stocks (especially the liquid leaders) and get in at advantageous buy points.»

Movers and Shakers

This week brought about as good a reaction to last week’s sharp selloff as you could have asked for. The major indexes generally held their 50-day lines and bounced nicely.»

Watching Our Indicators Closely

The market environment remains split, selective and challenging, with some stocks doing well and others looking horrid.»

Back in the Soup

Given the strong October run-up, we weren’t surprised to see the market retreat last week, but the severity of the dip in indexes and individual stocks was a yellow flag.»

Movers and Shakers

The force of the selling during the past couple of days is definitely a yellow flag, while the action among the leading stocks and indexes has actually been reasonable.»

Hit or Miss

We’re beginning to see money flow out of defensive stocks that have thrived over the past few years. If that continues, we think there’s a good chance growth stocks could benefit in a big way. »

Movers & Shakers

We continue to see more and more positive evidence. We received an intermediate-term buy signal back in early-ish October, and last week, even our longer-term trend-following measures turned bullish.»

Trends Remain Up

We believe this dip, while probably having further to run, is buyable, but stock selection remains key, as we’re still seeing many stocks fall apart even as others remain in favor. »

Improvement Seen in Growth Stocks

As earnings season has progressed, we’ve also seen improvement among growth stocks—it’s not a wild bull market, but more leadership has appeared, especially among the big, liquid leaders we like.»

More Improvement, but Lots of Bumps in the Road

We’re a bit more constructive than we have been, so we’ll bump the Market Monitor up a notch, but it remains vital to be selective—buy what’s working, keep losses small and avoid or sell anything that breaks down.»

Movers & Shakers

We’re likely to bump our Market Monitor up a notch next week for a couple of reasons. First, we’re seeing some “staying power” among high-relative strength, Top Ten-type stocks.»

The Second Mouse

Leading stocks often take a while to get going, so investors who race to jump in first often buy the wrong stocks at the wrong time.»

Market is Better But Not Great

We’re still cautiously optimistic but we’re also sticking with our relatively neutral stance»

Movers & Shakers

The pieces are in place for a good run in Top Ten (i.e., high relative strength) stocks … but we’re waiting for further confirmation before from those stocks before becoming heavily invested.»

Still Good-Looking Setups

There remain lots of good-looking set-ups, so our thought is that the rubber is likely to meet the road during the next three weeks as many resilient stocks report earnings.»

Earnings Season Dead Ahead

The rubber will likely meet the road during the next three weeks as earnings season revs up—a bunch of powerful breakouts would dramatically raise the odds that the market is beginning a sustained rally.»

Movers & Shakers

Our main thought: Should we see a bunch of these stocks that are set-up in sound bases lift off on earnings, it will be your sign to become more aggressive.»

Lots of Set-Ups—and Crosscurrents

With earnings season getting underway, there’s the potential for leadership to quickly form if things go right. But potential is the key word. »

Intermediate-Term Trend Up; Looking for Leadership

There are still a few flies in the ointment; the longer-term trend remains down and most of the big movers have been the worst performers of the past few months. »

Movers & Shakers

From a top-down perspective, the market has performed impressively this week. Under the market’s hood, however, the situation is anything but clear.»

Bottoming in Process

Last week, most major indexes successfully re-tested their August lows and, importantly, we saw a positive divergence from our Two-Second Indicator.»

Looking for Confirmation

We’re looking to see if the intermediate-term trend can turn up; by our measures, it could happen within a day or two if the market holds its recent gains. »

Movers & Shakers

If the trend turns up, we’ll take a more constructive stance (though we’ll likely advise going slow, as the longer-term trend remains an issue), and if it doesn’t turn up, we’ll simply remain hunkered down.»

Here’s What to Watch For

We’re focused on any potential bottoming action, especially as the major indexes tested their August mini-crash lows this week. »

Onus Remains on the Bulls

as always, it’s best to just take the evidence as it comes—today, that means holding lots of cash and limiting new buying as we patiently wait for a bottom to form.»

Stock Picks

Mattel

Turnaround situations can be a great place to find relatively low risk, high paying dividend stocks—and they’re usually a great value to boot.

Corrections Corp. of America

This REIT has paid dividends since 2012 and increased the dividend in each of the past three years.

Philip Morris

This non-cyclical consumer stock offers consistency and high dividends.

Cabot Wealth Advisory

Another Dire Stock Market Prediction: Whoopee!

By Paul Goodwin on April 29, 2016

McKinsey & Company is a big consulting firm—9,000 consultants and 2,000 researchers around the world—that companies hire when they need advice. I get research reports from McKinsey every once in a while, and they’re usually beautifully designed, well written and interesting in an abstract kind of way. The report that reached my email in-box on Thursday had the intriguing title: “Why investors may need to lower their sights.” (Note how the avoidance of Capital Letters makes things a little edgier; that’s the McKinsey Difference!) It took seven people to write this little piece of analysis, so you know it must contain really valuable information. Read More >

The One Thing You Can Do that Warren Buffett Can’t

By Paul Goodwin on April 28, 2016

Everybody (including me) loves Warren Buffett. He’s rich. He’s a major philanthropist who actively exhorts other rich people to give away their money. And he looks like an ideal grandfather ought to look: gray, smiling and enjoying life. But I do think Warren Buffett has a little bit of a regret, and it’s this ...Read More >

2 Strategies to Find Leading Value Stocks

By J. Royden Ward on April 26, 2016

The two strategies that I use to find consistent winning stocks involve evaluating sales and book value. I prefer sales and book value rather than earnings, because earnings fluctuate wildly and are often engineered, using an endless system of “adjustments.” Valuations based on sales or book values are more reliable when assessing the past, present and future prospects for companies.Read More >