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Cabot founder Carlton Lutts loved this one; he wore it on his jacket with some regularity. The lesson: When everyone's excited, the market's usually near a top, at least shorter-term. As I write this, I can clearly remember the euphoric state of mind of my colleagues and customers at each of the past five major market tops. And just as clearly, I know that state of mind will recur at the next major market top. When it comes, you should mentally begin to prepare for the coming bear market.