Six Big Trends You Can Profit From (or, Beware the Boiling Frog)
By
Timothy Lutts, Chief Investment Strategist and Editor of
Cabot Stock of the Month Report From Cabot Wealth Advisory 5/26/09
Sign up for free Cabot Wealth Advisory e-newsletterWe're all familiar with the story about the frog. If you drop him in boiling water, he'll jump right out. But if you put him in cold water and then heat it to boiling, he'll adjust gradually to the increasing temperature, be lulled into inaction, and die.
It's not true; the frog will eventually jump out. But as a cautionary tale, it reminds us that we should be wary of inaction in response to gradual changes in our environment. In other words, as change happens—and it happens every day—you must adapt. If not, you'll fail to thrive...and you might die.
So today I want to mention six major changes in our own environments, and discuss how we might adapt to them, and profit from them. These are big factors, messy and complicated—nothing as simple as rising water temperature. But if you are alert to the existence of these trends, I believe you'll be more able to detect investment opportunities—and pitfalls—in the years ahead. So here we go.
Six Big Trends1.) The Improvement of American Balance SheetsI was alerted to a major factor of this trend over a decade ago by Harry Dent, who noted that as Baby-Boomers aged, they would pay off their mortgages and focus more on saving. But I thought the change would come gradually; instead it began with an 18-month fall off a cliff. Now that the trend is in place, expectations for future prosperity have been reduced, and credit has been demonized, I think the trend will continue. In fact, that's a concept we believe in strongly at Cabot. "A trend, once in place, tends to persist longer and go farther than people expect."
So what does America look like if our appetite for credit continues to shrink, if we pay off our debts and build our savings accounts? Interest rates stay very low. Consumption falls. And the GDP growth rate stalls. I've long thought we should focus more on balance sheets as a measure of our financial health and not just incomes, and I believe my wish may now be coming true.
I like
Visa (V), which is a dominant force in the debit-card processing business.
2.) The Slimming of American BodiesWith three-fourths of Americans overweight, the trend to obesity has peaked. Now it's time to go the other way. Looking ahead, I expect reduced subsidies for agribusiness, particularly those responsible for high-fructose corn syrup. It looks like taxes on soft drinks are on the way. I expect a gradual retreat from junk food and calories and growing support of healthier food.
I like
Whole Foods Market (WFMI) and
United Natural Foods (UNFI) the biggest organic foods distributor. If you're brave, short
Coca-Cola (KO).
3.) Growing Government Involvement in EverythingThe past century has brought the birth of the income tax, Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, the Department of Education, the Department of Energy, the Department of Health and Human Services, the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Department of Transportation and the Department of Veterans Affairs. The past decade alone has brought the USA PATRIOT Act, the Department of Homeland Security (including the beloved Transportation Security Administration), the
Troubled Asset Relief Program, the Housing and Economic Recovery Act and more. The trend will continue.
I like
Orion Marine (ORN), a leading marine contractor primed to benefit from stimulus spending.
4.) The Slimming of American VehiclesThe U.S. Government's new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) requirements will be phased in from 2012 to 2016, resulting in vehicles that are smaller, lighter and more aerodynamic. You'll see fewer eight-cylinder engines and more turbochargers. And you'll see more hybrids ... and eventually electric vehicles.
On a related note, gasoline will slowly become less plentiful, as the cost of extraction of this limited resource continues to rise. Prices may eventually return to $4 per gallon. On the other hand, if the growth in demand is sufficiently offset by growing use of new high-MPG vehicles, the price increases will be slower.
I like
Tata Motors (TTM), the Indian automaker of the $2,500 Nano.
5.) The Rise of Alternative Energy Solar power and wind power will continue to take market share, as government subsidies increase and economies of scale reduce production costs. Alternative energy will remain a drop in the bucket compared to the vast fossil fuel-based energy infrastructure, but the upside of that is enormous long-term growth potential.
I like
First Solar (FSLR), the leading making of photovoltaic power systems.
6.) Growing Government Influence on HealthcareOver the course of my life, insurance companies have replaced doctors as the deciders in the healthcare system. Now it appears that the federal government will replace the insurance companies. The upside will be better coverage for the underprivileged. The downside will be less profit for insurance companies and rationing of healthcare for most Americans.
There will, however, be higher-quality care if you're spending your own money, just as in the education system today.
I like
Quality Systems (QSII), a leading provider of computer-based practice management systems and medical records applications for doctors and dentists.
In conclusion, look forward. Think big. Less than a century ago, investors who hung on to the stocks of buggy whip makers suffered when the world fell for the automobile. Ask yourself, "In 2009, which industries are prone to long-term shrinkage, and which are primed for explosive growth?"
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