Paul GoodwinEmerging Markets Specialist, Analyst and Editor of Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report
Paul Goodwin has been a member of the Cabot investment team and editor of
Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report since 2005. A researcher and writer for over 30 years, Paul brings a lifetime of inquiry to the task of figuring out whether stocks and markets are likely to go up or down.
Under Paul’s stewardship, the Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report was ranked by Hulbert Financial Digest as the top-performing newsletter for two years in a row: in 2006 with a 76% gain and 2007 with an 74.1% gain. Cabot China & Emerging Markets was also named Investment Letter of the Year for 2007 by Peter Brimelow of MarketWatch.
Prior to joining Cabot, Paul was a senior financial writer for Putnam Investments' international and institutional communications, writer and information designer for a consulting design firm, writer/editor of Trivial Pursuit games for Parker Brothers, professor at the University of New Hampshire, and a Chinese linguist for the U.S. Army Security Agency.
It's Paul's voice on the Cabot Phone Hotline, reading the weekly market update. He has spoken on emerging markets equities on Bloomberg TV and at the World Money Show and been interviewed by numerous financial news organizations including CNBC, CBS MarketWatch, WallStreetReporter.com and TopStockAnalysts.com. He holds a B.A. in speech and drama from the University of Arkansas and M.A. in speech communication from the University of Illinois.
Publications
Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report is for moderately aggressive investors. It offers bi-weekly recommendations of top stocks in countries whose emerging economies are growing faster than the U.S., currently China, Brazil, Russia and India. Edited by Paul Goodwin, Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report offers market commentary, expertly-researched stock recommendations, market timing advice, and follow-up advice.
Cabot China & Emerging Markets was ranked the
Top Newsletter in 2006 and 2007 by Hulbert Financial Digest and
2007 Investment Letter of the Year by Peter Brimelow of CBS Market Watch.
More information on Cabot China & Emerging Markets ReportEmerging Markets InvestingCabot EditorsCabot HomeCabot Wealth Advisories
Published
05/05/08When the technology bubble burst in 2000, many investors held onto their stocks even as they plummeted, believing in the mantra of time, not timing. In the end, it’s market timing indicators and having sell disciplines in place that count.
Published
04/28/08The increase corn production to be used for ethanol as a gasoline additive has caused the price of fertilizer to spike, resulting in inflation, hunger and poverty.
Published
04/10/08A true solid growth stock must adhere to all three criteria of the SNaC selection method: Story, Numbers and Chart.
Published
03/27/08I didn't have a strong business agenda for my visit to China. The real purpose was to put a face on the place, so to speak. I was fortunate to hear lectures by people with extensive China experience and to go on a couple of interesting factory visits. But the investing system used by the Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report doesn't make a lot of use of the kind of "look-them-in-the-eye" analysis of management that is popular with large institutional investors.
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03/10/08Stock market old-timers will often tell newbies that "the market wants to take your money," which, on the face of it, isn't all that credible. After all, lots of people make lots of money on Wall Street. Still, there's something to the warning, and the quicker you learn about it, the quicker you can start printing your yearly results in black ink, rather than red. So what can you do about it? As any of our longtime readers know, the answer is: have a system.
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03/01/08The news is out: Brazil is now the largest emerging market in the world by market capitalization of its stocks, and Petrobras, the Brazilian oil giant, is the largest company in the emerging markets by market cap. Brazilian stocks now make up about 15% of the MSCI Global Emerging Markets Index, compared with China's 14%. The South American giant has surpassed China, in part, because the Chinese stock market is in the middle of a pullback that has given its stocks a significant haircut. That's the way it is with emerging markets; they go up faster than developed markets and come down faster, too.
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02/21/08Intellectually, everyone knows that the right time to get into the market is at the bottom. Stocks are cheap and there are bargains galore. Unfortunately, figuring out when a bear market is going to bottom is about as easy as knowing when a long-winded speaker is going to quit talking. It can't be done. Maybe it's fairer to say that you can't see a market bottom by looking forward through the windshield. It's something that can only be seen in the rear-view mirror.
Published
02/11/08SNaC stands for Story, Numbers and Chart, and it's the method I use to pick stocks for the Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report. There's nothing complicated about it, but it can be very powerful. Just because it's simple, that doesn't mean it's easy to do, any more than the simplicity of "exercise more and eat less" makes that particular prescription easy. Here are the basic principles.
Published
01/31/08I know that these trading fiascos are bad things ... and yet part of me is strangely pleased about them. I like having big object lessons that show what happens when people break the rules and refuse to cut their losses short. Rogue traders aren't greedy criminals - none of the big ones have made any money for themselves on their dealings. But their mistakes remind us that anyone who reacts to losses by making increasingly riskier trades can parlay bad luck into a financial catastrophe of amazing proportions.
Published
01/19/08The Cabot Market Letter has been timing the market for over 37 years, and it is darned good at it. Even the Hulbert Financial Digest has noticed, giving the Letter an attaboy for its success in getting out of bear markets and back into bull runs. There are reasons for the divergence in the opinions of Cabot and the market commentators, and they don't require that one or the other has to be wrong. It's a good illustration of the power of the individual to grab victory from the jaws of defeat. Here's how it works.
Published
01/07/08Rather than give the same old big advice (buy quality stocks on reasonable pullbacks, let your winners run, cut your losers short, and don't try to go against the trend of the market) I'm going to recommend three small changes that you might actually be able to implement. And a successful small change is much better for you (both financially and emotionally) than a big change that you can't make happen.
Published
12/27/07As a growth investor, my investment horizon is considerably shorter. The portfolio I manage (for the Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report) can turn over as much as 300% a year, so I need to…
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12/10/07And if you're trying to build an entire country, the materials you need might just be prosaic steel and copper, and that brings me to my investment idea for the day. The company is Rio Tinto (RTP), the U.K. mining giant that sells billions of dollars worth of iron ore, copper, aluminum and other minerals every year. The company is growing fast because of demand from China and the rest of the developing world, and that growth is having some unexpected consequences.
Published
12/03/07My investing idea in this issue is FLIR Systems, a global leader in thermal imaging. The company’s name is an acronym for Forward Looking Infrared, a kind of imaging technology that allows military aircraft and vehicles to see through darkness (and also daytime fog and smoke). Government Systems applications may be FLIR’s calling card, but they’re a small part of the whole story. The company also has a Thermography division that designs and manufactures temperature sensing technologies that can spot overheating machinery, leaks, flaws in buildings and gradients in scientific experiments.
Published
11/19/07The investment idea that I'm floating in this issue is just that, an idea. But it's a big idea. Taleo Corporation is a California-based company, founded in 1999, that's trying to do two huge tasks: First, get companies the talent that they need to succeed; and, second, reduce the cost of an in-house human resources department. Taleo uses talent management software that is designed to recruit, manage and develop different classes of employees, from Professional to Hourly to Contingency (temporary). Among other tasks, Taleo's online programs guide clients through recruiting on campuses, complying with labor laws, and transitioning a new hire from candidate to employee.
Published
11/05/07Crocs, the maker of the deliciously comfortable, horrendously ugly shoes reported its earnings on Wednesday, October 31 after the market closed. The good news is that the company's profits more than doubled, reaching $0.66 a share vs. $0.25 for Q3 last year. This profit exceeded expectations by a few cents. Hurrah. But when the company issued its outlook for total 2007 earnings, raising its guidance by about a nickel over last quarter's estimate, the Street wasn't pleased.
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10/22/07There is a doom-and-gloom quality to much of the talk about the subprime crisis. The reasoning is that this wad of bad debt is hanging like an enormous boulder over the stock market highway, and that when it falls, the world as we know it will essentially end. In this regard, it's a lot like assertions that the U.S. national debt (or current account balance or poor educational system or declining manufacturing base, etc.) will ruin everything forever.
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09/28/07One company that has caught my eye recently is Gafisa (GFA), a Brazilian company that’s trying to bring North American-style housing developments to Brazil. Brazil’s population is more than 70% larger than that of Mexico, but its housing market is about half of that in Mexico. But as prosperity works its way through the Brazilian economy, more and more people will be able to afford homes, and Gafisa is bringing the efficiency of modern building methods to the building process.
Published
09/15/07Synaptics introduced the world’s first touchpad interface for a computer in 1995, and it’s been on the leading edge of the industry ever since. The company’s biggest hit, at least from the stock’s perspective, was the clickwheel for the iPod, which helped the stock soar from 2002 to the end of 2004. But the company has also developed pointing sticks and a variety of other “pads,” including SecurePad, RoundPad and LuxPad.