On Adding Bonds to your Value Portfolio
By
J. Royden Ward, Editor of
Cabot Benjamin Graham Value LetterFrom Cabot Wealth Advisory 2/26/09
Sign up for free Cabot Wealth Advisory e-newsletterMany value investors adhere to the old buy-and-hold forever theory. The past year, though, has been a brutal time to be a buy-and-hold investor. According to Morningstar, 95% of all mutual fund managers lost more than 27% last year. Holy cow!
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index (before dividends) dropped 21.85% for the 10 years ended December 31, 2008. The buy and hold strategy that many value investing gurus recommend has clearly not worked well during the past 10 years. Jeff Macke on CNBC's Fast Money went so far as to proclaim "2008 will go down as the year buy-and-hold came to die."
Oh no, what do we value investors do now?
I am focused on a little known Benjamin Graham strategy for investing that will undoubtedly, in my opinion, lead to success in this difficult stock market and in future markets. In his book, "The Intelligent Investor," Graham advised you, the investor, to always hold bonds in your investment portfolio. His recommendation is clear: "We recommend that the investor divide his holdings between high-grade bonds and leading common stocks; that the proportion held in bonds be never less than 25% or more than 75% with the converse being necessarily true for the common-stock component."
We believe Benjamin Graham's bond/stock allocation is the best approach to follow in the current difficult stock market environment and in the future:
(1) when the stock market is low and undervalued, hold 25% bonds and 75% stocks.
(2) when the stock market is high and overvalued, hold 75% bonds and 25% stocks. When the stock market begins to go from being undervalued to overvalued, gradually reduce your stock portion and buy more bonds or bond ETFs.
How do we determine when the stock market is undervalued or overvalued? Benjamin Graham detailed methods to estimate the current value of stocks. We apply Mr. Graham's methods to determine the current value of the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The methodology is based upon the 10-year financial history of each company, including the P/BV and P/E ratios.
Our current value estimate for the Dow Jones Industrial Average lies within a range of 8,300 and 12,370. Our estimated range varies somewhat from month to month. We expect the range to decline slightly in 2009 as companies report weak financial results during most of the year. The spread of the range will likely remain in the vicinity of 4,300 points.
According to Benjamin Graham's methodology, if the Dow is 8,300 or below, your portfolio should contain 25% bonds or bond ETFs and 75% common stocks. If the Dow is 12,370 or higher, your portfolio should contain 75% bonds or bond ETF's and 25% stocks. Our current recommendation is to invest 25% of your portfolio in bond ETFs and 75% in common stocks.
In 1987, I attended an investment conference and heard Andrew Tobias speak. Tobias is the author of "The Only Investment Guide You'll Ever Need" and many other books. He advised investors to lighten common stock holdings when the stock market is making new highs, and invest more heavily when the stock market is making new lows. Sell when the market is high and buy when the market is low is certainly good advice. However, not all of us have as good a "feel" for the stock market as does Andrew Tobias.
Tobias' simple advice for value investors is easier to follow than the Benjamin Graham current valuation approach, but may be too vague or simplistic to provide the best results. In Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter, we publish the current value estimate range for the Dow Jones Industrial Average every month for our readers. We do the calculations; our readers follow our numbers and advice. Whichever approach or method you choose, Graham or Tobias, stick with it, and you will prosper.
Click on these links for more information on Value investing:
Benjamin Graham's Seven Criteria for Picking Value Stocks
Here are Benjamin Graham's seven time-tested criteria to identify strong value stocks.
On Adding Bonds to your Value Portfolio
This little known Benjamin Graham strategy for investing that will undoubtedly lead to success in this difficult stock market and in future markets.
Some Value Investing History
The investment principles taught by Graham at Columbia University became legend in the field of professional stock analysis.
Q&A with J. Royden Ward on the Current Market
Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter Editor Roy Ward answers questions on the current market.
Value Investing Questions
Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter Editor Roy Ward responds to some thought-provoking questions from his readers.
Benjamin Graham's Mr. Market
One of Benjamin Graham's favorite parables is that of Mr. Market. Graham refers to him several times in his book, The Intelligent Investor.
Value Investing Frequently Asked Questions
Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter Editor Roy Ward answers common questions on his value investing strategy.
Making the Case for Value Investing
For every hyper-inflated stock, there is an undervalued stock with a low price to earnings ratio, strong balance sheet and a solid outlook.
Benjamin Graham Value: A Carved-in-Stone System that Works
This system will suit you if you're the type of investor who needs a strong dose of rigidity injected into his life.
How to Know Whether a Stock is a Bargain?
J. Royden Ward explains how he finds the estimated value of a company.
Value Investing Takes Advantage of Market Fluctuations
The basic principal is simple: the stock market and the individual stocks that make up the stock market have always bounced back and forth from overvalued to undervalued to overvalued, over and over again.
Guide to Value Investing
This guide explains the value investing strategy and defines intrinsic value and margin of safety.
Benjamin Graham, the Father of Value Investing
Since 1926, Benjamin Graham’s timeless value investing approach has achieved returns of 20% per year with low risk regardless of the market's ups and downs.
Is the Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter Right for You?
If you like the idea of buying stocks with low prices and calmly hanging on, Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter may be the right advisory for you.