Cabot Tides
The Cabot Tides uses five different market indexes to help us determine the overall intermediate-term direction of the stock market. They are: S&P 500, NYSE Composite, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 600 Small Cap and the Merrill Lynch Tech Index, an index that equally weights 100 of the leading technology stocks in the market.
The market is considered to be advancing on an intermediate-term basis if at least three of these five indexes are advancing. And contrarily, the market is deemed to be declining if at least three of these five are declining.
To derive intermediate-term signals, we compare each index to its own 25-day and 50-day moving averages. If the index is standing above the lower of these two moving averages, and that lower moving average is itself advancing, then this index is bullish. Otherwise, it's safe to assume the intermediate-term trend for this index is down.
Probably the most important advantage of using this moving average approach in timing the market is that you are guaranteed to catch every major market advance while avoiding every major market decline. This is the nature of a moving average. But there is a cost. It's the opportunity lost in the first few weeks of a new advance. And it's the small penalty you must pay for getting out of the market quickly when the market changes its mind soon after a new buy signal is given. For example, a new buy signal could quickly turn into a sell signal if the market turned weak enough to drop the index below its lower moving average. If that happens you should quickly turn defensive again and start thinking about the preservation of your capital instead of trying to make big gains in a falling market.
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