By Paul Goodwin, Analyst and Editor, Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report

Benjamin Graham, the spiritual father of the value investing style, once noted that “in the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it’s a weighing machine.” And intellectually, we all know that he’s right. In the day-to-day trading of stocks, prices will vary according to the changing whims of investor sentiment, which is buffeted by the flow of economic data, geopolitical news, rumors, prejudices, and the tides of irrational optimism and hopeless pessimism. But if a company consistently makes money, especially in increasing amounts, consumer sentiment will eventually come around, forcing the stock’s price into conformity with the actual value of the company.

This means that a canny investor (let’s call him Warren Buffett, just to pick a name out of a hat), only needs to do a few things to make money:
•    Accurately calculate a company’s true value from its assets and future earnings.
•    Figure out which stocks are trading at the greatest discount to that value.
•    Buy those stocks.
•    Wait.

And for many investors, especially those with a long investment horizon and a temperament with a low tolerance for risk, that’s all there is to investing. These are the investors who focus on a stock’s ratio of price to earnings and the like.

But there are a few problems. First, if calculating a company’s true value were easy, everyone would do it. But figuring out what a company will be worth in the future involves predicting the future of the U.S. and global economies, the behavior of consumers, the performance of managers and the interaction of all these factors with one another. It’s both an art and a science, and some people are better at it than others.

Second, the waiting can be a drag. Value investors usually expect to wait at least a year for stocks to appreciate, and often have to hold the stock for five or more years before results are obtained. Even a dividend, which many stocks offer in partial compensation for a lack of price appreciation, can only partially reward investors for leaving their money invested for that long.  When Warren Buffett was asked what he thought was an appropriate length of time for holding a stock he replied. “Forever.”

Many of us don’t have that long. But for those with the patience and discipline to make decisions and stick with them for the long term, the Cabot Benjamin Graham Value Letter provides the analysis necessary to invest in the value style.

It’s worth noting that Buffett, the world’s most successful value investor, is “only” the second richest man in the world. The richest is Bill Gates, whose fortune is founded on Microsoft, one of the greatest growth stocks in history.

At the other end of the investing style scale from value investing is swing trading, which is essentially a full-time job that involves following a few stocks very closely and making money based on how much they go up or down in a few days. It is incredibly high-risk investing and very few people have the temperament, skill and luck to succeed at it.

The more common form of the growth investing style is represented by the Cabot Market Letter, a fully-managed portfolio that uses momentum, technical analysis, and market timing to find stocks that are outperforming the market. At this level of aggressiveness, the investor needs to be determined enough to tolerate fairly high volatility and rational enough to control that risk with appropriate sell disciplines.

For investors with even higher risk tolerance, there are the Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report and the Cabot Top Ten Report. These publications offer insight and analysis of faster-moving stocks with the potential to appreciate as much in a few months as many value stocks will in a few years.

More Stock Investing advice:

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Cabot's Position on Shorting Stocks 1/27/10
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Why the Lost Decade is Good News for the Future 12/16/09
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Three Characteristics of Winning Investors 11/26/09
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The Three Most Important Investing Lessons 11/6/09
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A Simple Way to Assess Your Risk 10/1/09
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Three Reasons to Own Individual Stocks 6/22/09
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Guidelines on Handling Earnings Gaps 4/22/09
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How to Handle Earnings Season 4/19/09
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Three Clues to Determine the Market's Next Move 1/22/09
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Advantages to Being an Individual Investor 1/12/09
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Dispelling Six Common Investing Myths 7/3/08
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Listen to Your Stocks  4/23/08
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Practice Patience Early in a New Bull Market  3/29/08
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Tips on Handling Market Stress  3/15/08
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How to Invest During a Recession 1/17/08
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On Improving Your Personal Side of the Investing Equation 2/25/08
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SNaC to Keep Your Portfolio in Shape 2/11/08
SNaC stands for Story, Numbers and Chart, and it's the method Paul Goodwin uses to pick stocks for the Cabot China & Emerging Markets Report.

Be Ready to Buy when Market Leading Stocks are on Sale 2/1/08
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What to do when Sellers are in Control of the Market
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Why Recession Really Doesn't Matter to Investors
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Technical Analysis: Free Yourself from Why
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Run, Sheep, Run
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